Four Predictions on OCS in 2010
Filed under: OCS 2007 R2, OCS 2010, Reference, Unified Communications, Voice over IP
Welcome to 2010! Are we back to scrambling already?
Before we get too crazy, let me make a few predictions about OCS. (It’’s the thing to do this time of year.) We”re headed for another year of big shake-ups and racing towards better-priced options. I”m sure Office Communications Server will be involved in some of it. Though I”ll freely admit, I may deny one or two of these by the time 2011 rolls around.
Prediction #1: OCS 2010′’s release will come with calls to end the PBX. It won”t…not yet.
Office Communications Server 2010 is slated for release either in Q2 or Q3 2010. We”ll hear a lot of buzz beforehand, along with calls to 100% replace PBX phone systems with OCS. (I”m not actually the first to say this.)
If it truly is a PBX-killer - and I”m hopeful it is - then these calls will be justified. However, OCS adoption over PBX won”t begin in earnest until 2011. It takes time to make such a big change - time to get used to the idea, and time to plan the change itself. Smaller companies will get a jump on OCS 2010 instead. They don”t always have a PBX to replace.
Prediction #2: OCS 2007 R2 will grow as a hosted service, even with OCS 2010′’s release.
I”m no economist; I won”t even try predicting what the markets will do this year. What I will say is that more companies will look for more ways to save. Startup costs, trying to grow without much budget, no desire to buy all-new servers…these factors will push more companies toward hosted services as a lower-cost option. Judging from the adoption rates and interest we”ve received, I”m expecting companies in the mid-to-upper range of SMBs to take the most advantage here.
Prediction #3: We”ll see a growing comfort with VoIP as a phone system.
Voice over IP is becoming a more accepted alternative to regular phone lines. In a way, we have Google and Skype to thank for this. The rampant popularity of Google Voice, and the popularity of Skype (even in business use) shows people are more comfortable with the idea of using the Web for voice communication now.
When OCS 2007 first came out, many people didn”t trust its VoIP capability as a reliable phone system. That was just 2 years ago. Now that technology has caught up and social adoption is higher, that lack of trust won”t be applied to OCS 2010.
Prediction #4: OCS 2010′’s 64-bit structure may discourage some from upgrading.
There is a problem in all this. OCS 2007 R2 is available only in 64-bit. Exchange 2010 just shipped with a 64-bit version. It’’s not hard to imagine that OCS 2010 will be 64-bit only. This will cause some sticking for those companies who haven”t moved to 64-bit servers yet; upgrading to OCS 2010 would mean buying new 64-bit servers. For those companies looking to SAVE on communications, spending extra is a contradiction. And a big upgrade objection.
(There’’s always the hosted option though!)
A few things to think about. Overall I think OCS” prospects are good, even with the 64-bit snag. Some will say the new smartphones coming out are a danger to OCS, but I think they have a more complementary role than a competitive one. We”ll have to see where 2010 takes us, won”t we?
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